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Welcome back Chronicler!

This week, Washington proved it can yank access to a frontier AI model from commercial markets at any time and for any reason, and it did exactly that to Anthropic's Mythos 5 before partially relenting under industry pressure. The episode landed the same week China's Zhipu matched U.S. frontier performance on key benchmarks, and the combination reshapes how every VC-backed AI company should think about platform risk.

Plus: Cap Table Dilution and this week's best picks from The Stack.

As always, thank you for subscribing and engaging week-in week out. Still a work in progress, but I appreciate all 2,244 of you.

With Love,
Kev

THIS WEEK IN VC & TECH
What matters this week

LEAD STORY

The Trump administration's two-week export control lockdown on Anthropic's Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models, triggered by a jailbreak report from Amazon, established a new and alarming precedent: the U.S. government can restrict commercial access to frontier AI models at will, with no legislative framework or clear criteria.

While Anthropic won partial relief on June 26 for roughly 100 approved companies, Fable 5 remains off the market entirely. The geopolitical consequence landed fast: China's Zhipu released GLM-5.2, and Marc Andreessen publicly declared it "the first Chinese AI model to match and often beat the American big lab public AI models."

For VCs, this episode rewrites the risk model for AI infrastructure investments, sovereign intervention is now a live variable, not a theoretical one, and portfolio companies built on top of restricted frontier models have a new category of regulatory fragility to price in.

"The U.S. government just proved it can pull the plug on frontier AI overnight, and China noticed immediately."

❝

The U.S. government just proved it can pull the plug on frontier AI overnight, and China noticed immediately.

QUICK HITS

AI Model Access Controls  TechCrunch · June 26

The White House asked OpenAI to limit its new GPT-5.6 lineup to roughly 20 government-approved companies, citing the need to build a security testing framework before broad release. OpenAI complied while publicly warning that government gatekeeping of AI access "should not become the long-term default," a signal that the industry is bracing for this pattern to repeat.

South Korea's President unveiled an $880 billion national AI infrastructure plan anchored by Samsung and SK Hynix building four new memory fabs and an HBM packaging hub, plus $356 billion in AI data center capacity by 2035. The plan directly targets the global memory shortage bottlenecking AI buildout, and reinforces South Korea's position as an irreplaceable node in the global AI supply chain.

Humanoid Robotics Exit  TechCrunch · June 24

Agility Robotics, backed by DCVC, SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Amazon, and NVIDIA, agreed to merge with Churchill Capital Corp XI in a deal valuing it at $2.5 billion pre-money. The deal would make Agility the only U.S.-listed pure-play humanoid robotics company with live commercial deployments, testing whether public markets are ready to price the physical AI wave that VCs have been betting on.

Dutch software-focused firm Main Capital Partners closed its ninth flagship fund at 4 billion euros and a companion vehicle at 1.25 billion euros, more than doubling the size of its predecessor funds and pushing total AUM above 12 billion euros. The raise signals that LP appetite for buyout-style enterprise software investing in Europe remains robust even as early-stage venture fundraising tightens.

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MONEY IN MOTION
The largest deals that you should know about

Baseten, an AI inference platform most developers had never heard of outside engineering circles, just landed a $1.5 billion Series F at a $13 billion valuation. The deal signals that the picks-and-shovels layer of the AI stack is now attracting the kind of capital once reserved for the frontier model labs themselves.

Company

Sector

Round

Amount

Date

 

AI Inference

Series F

$1.5B

Jun 22

Digital Marketing

Series E

$1B+

Jun 22

AI Inference / Chips

Growth

$650M

Jun 22

Ophthalmology

Series B

$330M

Jun 23

Foundational AI / Robotics

Series A

$320M

Jun 25

❝

The week was dominated by the inference layer of the AI stack, Baseten and Groq alone pulled in $2.15 billion, suggesting investors have moved past betting on which foundation model wins and are now funding the plumbing that all of them run on. Biotech held its ground as the only non-AI sector cracking the top five.

VENTURE BITE: One Concept in One Minute
CAP TABLE DILUTION

"Dilution is not what you lose when a new investor comes in: it is what you agreed to give up when you set the terms of the previous round."

CONCEPT

Every time a startup issues new shares, existing shareholders own a smaller percentage of the company. This is dilution. It is not inherently bad (a smaller slice of a much bigger pie can be worth far more than a larger slice of a tiny one), but founders and early investors consistently underestimate how much dilution compounds across multiple rounds. The math is simple: if a company issues new shares equal to 20% of the post-round total, every existing shareholder is diluted by exactly 20% in relative terms, regardless of how much the valuation has grown.

WORKED EXAMPLE

Aiko, a seed investor, owns 10% of a startup after the seed round (500,000 shares out of 5,000,000 total).

Series A: company issues 1,000,000 new shares.

New total = 6,000,000. Aiko post-Series A = 500,000 / 6,000,000 = 8.33%

Series B: company issues 2,000,000 new shares.

New total = 8,000,000. Aiko post-Series B = 500,000 / 8,000,000 = 6.25%

Total relative dilution: (10% - 6.25%) / 10% = 37.5%. Aiko's percentage has been cut by more than a third despite never selling a single share.

Quiz (Difficulty: Very Easy)

Q1: A founder owns 60% of a startup (3,000,000 shares out of 5,000,000 total). The company raises a Series A and issues 1,250,000 new shares. What is the founder's ownership percentage after the Series A?

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Q2: Using the same scenario (founder at 48% post-Series A, 6,250,000 total shares), the company raises a Series B issuing 1,562,500 new shares. What is the founder's post-Series B ownership and total relative dilution from the original 60%?

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THIS WEEK’S STANDOUT

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FROM X
Our favorite post from this week

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THE BOARD
VC jobs, curated for you

Here's what you've been waiting for: exciting job opportunities! To maximize your chances, remember these key tips:

  • Apply early and tailor your application to each specific job posting.

  • Research the Venture Capital firm thoroughly, including their portfolio companies and investment thesis.

  • Customize your CV to highlight the strengths most relevant to the role.

  • Go the extra mile: Identify a startup that aligns with the VC's portfolio and investment strategy. Then, craft a two-page memo explaining why you believe it would be an excellent fit for their investment

    🔥Must Apply | 🌱Impact Investing | 🧑‍💻Remote Role | 🥳Easy Apply (LinkedIn) | 🧑‍🏫 Recruiting Agency

    1. 🇺🇸 Toyota Research Institute | VC Associate 🥳 🔥

    2. 🇺🇸 CareFirst | Senior Associate

    3. 🇺🇸 Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan | Analyst 🔥🔥🔥🔥

    4. 🇺🇸 BlackRock | Growth Equity Associate 🔥🔥🔥🔥🌱

    5. 🇺🇸 Andreessen Horrowitz | Partner 18 🔥🔥🔥

    6. 🇺🇸 Tencent | Strategic Investment Manager 🔥🔥🔥

    7. 🇺🇸 Melitas Ventures | Venture Capital Analyst

    8. 🇺🇸 Mondelez SnackFutures Ventures | Director 🔥🔥

    9. 🇺🇸 Minfon Group | Venture Partner🧑‍💻

    10. 🇬🇧 Antler | Principal 🔥🔥🔥

    11. 🇬🇧 Antler | Investment Associate 🔥🔥🔥

    12. 🇸🇦 Merak Capital | Venture Capital Associate 🥳

    13. 🇸🇬 Blackrock | Investment Analyst 🔥🔥🔥🌱

That’s it for today, hope you enjoyed this as much as I did curating it, see you next week!
-Kev